How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Iceland, at 37.1%. The other outcomes represent 62.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.8% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 37.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estonia 1373; Iceland 1531. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
Estonia
Elo 1373
0
-
0
Iceland
Elo 1531
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-157
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Estonia1373
Iceland1531
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Estonia
4Draws
0Iceland
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
28%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
41%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.