How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Luton, at 68.0%. The other outcomes represent 32.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 16.7% · Draw: 15.3% · Away win: 68%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Colchester 1625; Luton 1823. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
EFL Trophy · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:00
Colchester
Elo 1625
1
-
1
Luton
Elo 1823
PEN
FT 90' 1-1
PEN 3-4
HT 0-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-198
Elo rating comparison
Colchester1625
Luton1823
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Colchester
—Draws
—Luton
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
68% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
15%
Away
68%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
Draw
37%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.