How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bury, at 60.8%. The other outcomes represent 39.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.6% · Draw: 18.6% · Away win: 60.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Stockton Town 1546; Bury 1734. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Non League Premier - Northern · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
Stockton Town
Elo 1546
1
-
0
Bury
Elo 1734
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-187
Elo rating comparison
Stockton Town1546
Bury1734
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Stockton Town
—Draws
—Bury
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
19%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
WRONG
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
80%
No
20%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
20%
Draw
37%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
WRONG
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.