How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tamworth, at 54.2%. The other outcomes represent 45.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.2% · Draw: 20.8% · Away win: 25%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tamworth 1624; Leeds United U21 1503. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National League Cup · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
Tamworth
Elo 1624
1
-
0
Leeds United U21
Elo 1503
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+121
Elo rating comparison
Tamworth1624
Leeds United U211503
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Tamworth
—Draws
—Leeds United U21
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
21%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
Draw
34%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.