How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fortaleza EC, at 46.5%. The other outcomes represent 53.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.6% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 46.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: America Mineiro 1610; Fortaleza EC 1856. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie B · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 23:30
America Mineiro
Elo 1610
0
-
1
Fortaleza EC
Elo 1856
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-246
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
America Mineiro1610
Fortaleza EC1856
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2America Mineiro
0Draws
0Fortaleza EC
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
26%
Away
46%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
45%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.