How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is U. San Martin, at 38.0%. The other outcomes represent 62.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38% · Draw: 29.1% · Away win: 33%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: U. San Martin 1435; Alianza Universidad 1526. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 20:30
U. San Martin
Elo 1435
2
-
1
Alianza Universidad
Elo 1526
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-91
Elo rating comparison
U. San Martin1435
Alianza Universidad1526
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—U. San Martin
—Draws
—Alianza Universidad
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
29%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
42%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.