How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is USA, at 44.1%. The other outcomes represent 55.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.1% · Draw: 26.4% · Away win: 29.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: USA 1750; Canada 1767. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 00:00
USA
Elo 1750
1
-
0
Canada
Elo 1767
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-18
Elo rating comparison
USA1750
Canada1767
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—USA
—Draws
—Canada
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
26%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
40%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
WRONG
Yes
90%
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.