How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guangxi Hengchen, at 65.2%. The other outcomes represent 34.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 16.8% · Draw: 18% · Away win: 65.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dongguan United 1357; Guangxi Hengchen 1702. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League One · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 11:30
Dongguan United
Elo 1357
1
-
0
Guangxi Hengchen
Elo 1702
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-346
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Dongguan United1357
Guangxi Hengchen1702
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Dongguan United
2Draws
0Guangxi Hengchen
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
18%
Away
65%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
16%
Draw
38%
Away
46%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
WRONG
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.