How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deportivo Llacuabamba, at 37.7%. The other outcomes represent 62.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.7% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 34.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportivo Llacuabamba 1500; Comerciantes 1576. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 18:00
Deportivo Llacuabamba
Elo 1500
4
-
0
Comerciantes
Elo 1576
FT
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-76
Elo rating comparison
Deportivo Llacuabamba1500
Comerciantes1576
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Deportivo Llacuabamba
—Draws
—Comerciantes
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
38%
Draw
28%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
29%
Draw
48%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.