How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bom Jesus EC, at 65.5%. The other outcomes represent 34.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.5% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 13.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bom Jesus EC 1641; Morrinhos 1463. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Goiano - 2 · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 18:30
Bom Jesus EC
Elo 1641
3
-
2
Morrinhos
Elo 1463
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+177
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Bom Jesus EC1641
Morrinhos1463
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Bom Jesus EC
0Draws
0Morrinhos
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
CORRECT
Home
65%
Draw
21%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
46%
Draw
42%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.