How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Avro, at 66.1%. The other outcomes represent 33.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.1% · Draw: 16.4% · Away win: 17.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Avro 1718; Lancaster City 1544. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Non League Premier - Northern · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 18:45
Avro
Elo 1718
5
-
3
Lancaster City
Elo 1544
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+174
Elo rating comparison
Avro1718
Lancaster City1544
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Avro
—Draws
—Lancaster City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
CORRECT
Home
66%
Draw
16%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
35%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.