How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vélez Sársfield Res., at 56.8%. The other outcomes represent 43.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18% · Draw: 25.2% · Away win: 56.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sarmiento Res. 1455; Vélez Sársfield Res. 1683. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Reserve League · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 18:00
Sarmiento Res.
Elo 1455
0
-
1
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Elo 1683
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-229
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sarmiento Res.1455
Vélez Sársfield Res.1683
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sarmiento Res.
0Draws
2Vélez Sársfield Res.
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
18%
Draw
25%
Away
57%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
45%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.