How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Club Guarani, at 74.2%. The other outcomes represent 25.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 74.2% · Draw: 16% · Away win: 9.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Club Guarani 1768; Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1515. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division Profesional - Clausura · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 20:00
Club Guarani
Elo 1768
1
-
1
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Elo 1515
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+253
H2H (5)
3H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Club Guarani1768
Club Sp. San Lorenzo1515
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Club Guarani
0Draws
2Club Sp. San Lorenzo
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
WRONG
Home
74%
Draw
16%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
38%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.