How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Libertad Asuncion, at 48.7%. The other outcomes represent 51.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.7% · Draw: 21.6% · Away win: 48.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportivo Recoleta 1660; Libertad Asuncion 1756. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division Profesional - Clausura · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 13:00
Deportivo Recoleta
Elo 1660
1
-
2
Libertad Asuncion
Elo 1756
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
-96
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Deportivo Recoleta1660
Libertad Asuncion1756
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Deportivo Recoleta
0Draws
4Libertad Asuncion
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
22%
Away
49%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
41%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.