How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atletico Nacional, at 59.4%. The other outcomes represent 40.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.4% · Draw: 21.3% · Away win: 19.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Nacional 1823; Deportes Tolima 1707. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 23:05
Atletico Nacional
Elo 1823
0
-
0
Deportes Tolima
Elo 1707
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
+116
H2H (6)
4H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Nacional1823
Deportes Tolima1707
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Atletico Nacional
0Draws
2Deportes Tolima
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
59%
Draw
21%
Away
19%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.