How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tobol 2, at 44.9%. The other outcomes represent 55.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 44.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aktobe Jas 1261; Tobol 2 1411. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–4. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Division · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 11:00
Aktobe Jas
Elo 1261
4
-
4
Tobol 2
Elo 1411
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-150
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Aktobe Jas1261
Tobol 21411
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Aktobe Jas
2Draws
0Tobol 2
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
25%
Away
45%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
Draw
37%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.