How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Kaspij Aktau 2, at 43.4%. The other outcomes represent 56.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.4% · Draw: 22% · Away win: 34.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kaspij Aktau 2 1405; Astana II 1363. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 6–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Division · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 11:00
Kaspij Aktau 2
Elo 1405
6
-
0
Astana II
Elo 1363
FT
HT 4-0
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+41
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Kaspij Aktau 21405
Astana II1363
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Kaspij Aktau 2
0Draws
2Astana II
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
22%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
38%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.