How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alebrijes de Oaxaca, at 40.9%. The other outcomes represent 59.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.9% · Draw: 25.3% · Away win: 33.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1363; Correcaminos Uat 1421. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 01:00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Elo 1363
2
-
1
Correcaminos Uat
Elo 1421
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-58
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Alebrijes de Oaxaca1363
Correcaminos Uat1421
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0Draws
0Correcaminos Uat
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
25%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
40%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.