How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Maccabi Ashdod, at 40.9%. The other outcomes represent 59.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.9% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 40.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Hapoel Marmorek 1440; Maccabi Ashdod 1536. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Alef · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 16:00
Hapoel Marmorek
Elo 1440
1
-
1
Maccabi Ashdod
Elo 1536
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-95
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Hapoel Marmorek1440
Maccabi Ashdod1536
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Hapoel Marmorek
4Draws
0Maccabi Ashdod
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
23%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
25%
Draw
43%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.