How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is GOR Mahia, at 51.6%. The other outcomes represent 48.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 51.6% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 23.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: GOR Mahia 1806; Nairobi United 1670. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FKF Premier League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 12:00
GOR Mahia
Elo 1806
vs
Nairobi United
Elo 1670
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+136
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
GOR Mahia1806
Nairobi United1670
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0GOR Mahia
0Draws
4Nairobi United
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
Home
52%
Draw
25%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
43%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.