How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is AS Kigali, at 43.3%. The other outcomes represent 56.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.3% · Draw: 26.8% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: AS Kigali 1510; Gicumbi 1448. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National Soccer League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 14:00
AS Kigali
Elo 1510
1
-
0
Gicumbi
Elo 1448
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+62
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
AS Kigali1510
Gicumbi1448
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4AS Kigali
0Draws
0Gicumbi
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
27%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
40%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.