How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pakhtakor, at 75.3%. The other outcomes represent 24.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.3% · Draw: 14.7% · Away win: 10%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pakhtakor 1854; Bunyodkor 1553. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Super League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 14:00
Pakhtakor
Elo 1854
3
-
1
Bunyodkor
Elo 1553
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+301
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Pakhtakor1854
Bunyodkor1553
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Pakhtakor
0Draws
0Bunyodkor
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
75% conf.
CORRECT
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
38%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.