How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is KäPa, at 38.5%. The other outcomes represent 61.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.5% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 37.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: KäPa 1691; MP 1745. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ykkösliiga · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 16:00
KäPa
Elo 1691
1
-
1
MP
Elo 1745
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-55
H2H (5)
1H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
KäPa1691
MP1745
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1KäPa
0Draws
4MP
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
24%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
25%
Draw
47%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.