How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Herd, at 42.7%. The other outcomes represent 57.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.7% · Draw: 20.2% · Away win: 37.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Herd 1418; Spjelkavik 1427. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division - Girone 2 · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 16:15
Herd
Elo 1418
2
-
1
Spjelkavik
Elo 1427
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-9
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Herd1418
Spjelkavik1427
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Herd
0Draws
0Spjelkavik
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
20%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
33%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.