How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is BSG Chemie Leipzig, at 49.9%. The other outcomes represent 50.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.9% · Draw: 27.1% · Away win: 23%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: BSG Chemie Leipzig 1646; Luckenwalde 1540. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Regionalliga - Nordost · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 17:00
BSG Chemie Leipzig
Elo 1646
1
-
3
Luckenwalde
Elo 1540
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+106
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
BSG Chemie Leipzig1646
Luckenwalde1540
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2BSG Chemie Leipzig
0Draws
0Luckenwalde
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
27%
Away
23%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
38%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.