How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is KCCA, at 40.2%. The other outcomes represent 59.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.2% · Draw: 27.7% · Away win: 40.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: URA 1574; KCCA 1687. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 17:00
URA
Elo 1574
0
-
1
KCCA
Elo 1687
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-113
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
URA1574
KCCA1687
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0URA
4Draws
0KCCA
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
28%
Away
40%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
49%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.