How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Winterthur, at 53.3%. The other outcomes represent 46.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.1% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 53.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1676; FC Winterthur 1772. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Challenge League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 17:30
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Elo 1676
3
-
0
FC Winterthur
Elo 1772
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-96
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Neuchatel Xamax FC1676
FC Winterthur1772
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Neuchatel Xamax FC
0Draws
4FC Winterthur
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
22%
Away
53%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
Draw
36%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
WRONG
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.