How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Al Arabi, at 52.8%. The other outcomes represent 47.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.8% · Draw: 21.4% · Away win: 52.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kazma 1637; Al Arabi 1827. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 17:05
Kazma
Elo 1637
1
-
1
Al Arabi
Elo 1827
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-189
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Kazma1637
Al Arabi1827
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Kazma
0Draws
4Al Arabi
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
Draw
21%
Away
53%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
38%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.