How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Dordrecht, at 45.1%. The other outcomes represent 54.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.1% · Draw: 20.4% · Away win: 34.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Dordrecht 1478; Emmen 1511. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Dordrecht
Elo 1478
0
-
3
Emmen
Elo 1511
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-33
Elo rating comparison
Dordrecht1478
Emmen1511
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Dordrecht
—Draws
—Emmen
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
20%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
36%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.