How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Heracles, at 58.3%. The other outcomes represent 41.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.3% · Draw: 19.4% · Away win: 22.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Heracles 1674; Waalwijk 1618. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Heracles
Elo 1674
3
-
0
Waalwijk
Elo 1618
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
+56
Elo rating comparison
Heracles1674
Waalwijk1618
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Heracles
—Draws
—Waalwijk
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
Draw
19%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
33%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.