How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is VVV Venlo, at 50.7%. The other outcomes represent 49.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.2% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 50.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Jong Ajax 1356; VVV Venlo 1554. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Jong Ajax
Elo 1356
0
-
3
VVV Venlo
Elo 1554
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-198
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Jong Ajax1356
VVV Venlo1554
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Jong Ajax
0Draws
0VVV Venlo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
21%
Away
51%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
38%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.