How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Jong AZ, at 55.0%. The other outcomes represent 45.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55% · Draw: 21.7% · Away win: 23.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Jong AZ 1619; Den Bosch 1498. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Jong AZ
Elo 1619
0
-
1
Den Bosch
Elo 1498
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+121
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Jong AZ1619
Den Bosch1498
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Jong AZ
1Draws
0Den Bosch
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
55%
Draw
22%
Away
23%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
40%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.