How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is NAC Breda, at 60.0%. The other outcomes represent 40.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60% · Draw: 17.3% · Away win: 22.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: NAC Breda 1627; MVV 1442. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eerste Divisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
NAC Breda
Elo 1627
1
-
0
MVV
Elo 1442
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+184
Elo rating comparison
NAC Breda1627
MVV1442
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—NAC Breda
—Draws
—MVV
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
17%
Away
23%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
52%
Draw
30%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.