How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is PSV Eindhoven, at 72.6%. The other outcomes represent 27.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 72.6% · Draw: 15.7% · Away win: 11.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: PSV Eindhoven 2119; Heerenveen 1874. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Eredivisie · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
PSV Eindhoven
Elo 2119
2
-
0
Heerenveen
Elo 1874
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+245
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
PSV Eindhoven2119
Heerenveen1874
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2PSV Eindhoven
0Draws
0Heerenveen
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
73%
@ 1.23
Draw
16%
@ 6.59
Away
12%
@ 9.87
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.47
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.05
No
7%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
65% conf.
CORRECT
Home
65%
@ 1.54
Draw
23%
@ 3.22
Away
12%
@ 7.10
HT Both Teams Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
HT Over 0.5
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.13
No
16%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.64
No
39%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
@ 1.05
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.18
No
29%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.49
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.