How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Mosta, at 62.5%. The other outcomes represent 37.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62.5% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 15.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mosta 1651; Birzebbuga 1568. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Mosta
Elo 1651
2
-
2
Birzebbuga
Elo 1568
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+83
Elo rating comparison
Mosta1651
Birzebbuga1568
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Mosta
—Draws
—Birzebbuga
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
63%
Draw
22%
Away
15%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
Draw
41%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.