How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Petrópolis, at 51.0%. The other outcomes represent 49.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 51% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 24.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Petrópolis 1518; Artsul 1494. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca - 2 · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Petrópolis
Elo 1518
1
-
1
Artsul
Elo 1494
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+25
Elo rating comparison
Petrópolis1518
Artsul1494
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Petrópolis
—Draws
—Artsul
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
25%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
45%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.