How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Al-Nassr, at 64.3%. The other outcomes represent 35.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 64.3% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 15.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Al-Nassr 2029; Al Diriyah 1727. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Pro League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:00
Al-Nassr
Elo 2029
3
-
0
Al Diriyah
Elo 1727
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+302
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Al-Nassr2029
Al Diriyah1727
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Al-Nassr
0Draws
0Al Diriyah
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
64% conf.
CORRECT
Home
64%
Draw
20%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
34%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.