How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Yverdon Sport, at 56.0%. The other outcomes represent 44.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 21.7% · Draw: 22.2% · Away win: 56%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Étoile Carouge 1694; Yverdon Sport 1855. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Challenge League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:15
Étoile Carouge
Elo 1694
0
-
2
Yverdon Sport
Elo 1855
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-161
H2H (8)
2H
6D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Étoile Carouge1694
Yverdon Sport1855
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Étoile Carouge
6Draws
0Yverdon Sport
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
22%
Draw
22%
Away
56%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
37%
Away
42%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.