How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Aarau, at 57.7%. The other outcomes represent 42.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 19.2% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 57.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Stade Nyonnais 1536; FC Aarau 1789. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Challenge League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:15
Stade Nyonnais
Elo 1536
2
-
1
FC Aarau
Elo 1789
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
-253
H2H (7)
0H
1D
6A
Elo rating comparison
Stade Nyonnais1536
FC Aarau1789
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Stade Nyonnais
1Draws
6FC Aarau
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
Draw
23%
Away
58%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
20%
Draw
36%
Away
45%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.