How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Podbeskidzie, at 50.1%. The other outcomes represent 49.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.1% · Draw: 23.9% · Away win: 26%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Podbeskidzie 1727; Pogoń Siedlce 1623. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
I Liga · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:30
Podbeskidzie
Elo 1727
1
-
0
Pogoń Siedlce
Elo 1623
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+104
Elo rating comparison
Podbeskidzie1727
Pogoń Siedlce1623
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Podbeskidzie
—Draws
—Pogoń Siedlce
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
Draw
24%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
36%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.