How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rathfriland, at 54.2%. The other outcomes represent 45.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.2% · Draw: 21% · Away win: 24.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rathfriland 1456; Armagh City 1215. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:45
Rathfriland
Elo 1456
2
-
1
Armagh City
Elo 1215
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+241
Elo rating comparison
Rathfriland1456
Armagh City1215
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Rathfriland
—Draws
—Armagh City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
21%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
27%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
92%
No
8%
Over 2.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.