How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is The New Saints, at 72.7%. The other outcomes represent 27.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 15.1% · Draw: 12.2% · Away win: 72.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Holywell 1633; The New Saints 2129. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–6. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 18:45
Holywell
Elo 1633
1
-
6
The New Saints
Elo 2129
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-496
Elo rating comparison
Holywell1633
The New Saints2129
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Holywell
—Draws
—The New Saints
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
15%
Draw
12%
Away
73%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Half-Time Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
15%
Draw
21%
Away
63%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.