How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Libertas, at 45.7%. The other outcomes represent 54.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.8% · Draw: 22.5% · Away win: 45.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cailungo 1169; Libertas 1321. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campionato · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 19:15
Cailungo
Elo 1169
1
-
2
Libertas
Elo 1321
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-152
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Cailungo1169
Libertas1321
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Cailungo
0Draws
1Libertas
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
46%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
35%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.