How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is La Fiorita, at 78.7%. The other outcomes represent 21.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 78.7% · Draw: 13.2% · Away win: 8.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: La Fiorita 1725; Murata 1189. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campionato · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 19:15
La Fiorita
Elo 1725
3
-
0
Murata
Elo 1189
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+536
Elo rating comparison
La Fiorita1725
Murata1189
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—La Fiorita
—Draws
—Murata
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
79% conf.
CORRECT
Home
79%
Draw
13%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Half-Time Result
64% conf.
WRONG
Home
64%
Draw
28%
Away
8%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.