How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Folgore, at 61.1%. The other outcomes represent 38.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.6% · Draw: 18.2% · Away win: 61.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pennarossa 1234; Folgore 1600. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–5. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campionato · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 19:15
Pennarossa
Elo 1234
1
-
5
Folgore
Elo 1600
FT
HT 1-4
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-366
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Pennarossa1234
Folgore1600
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Pennarossa
0Draws
2Folgore
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
Draw
18%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
19%
Draw
34%
Away
48%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.