How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Inca Aruba, at 46.3%. The other outcomes represent 53.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.3% · Draw: 23% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Inca Aruba 1501; Platense 1477. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 00:00
Inca Aruba
Elo 1501
vs
Platense
Elo 1477
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+25
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Inca Aruba1501
Platense1477
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Inca Aruba
0Draws
2Platense
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
Home
46%
Draw
23%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
Home
31%
Draw
39%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.