How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alianza Valledupar, at 39.5%. The other outcomes represent 60.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.5% · Draw: 26.5% · Away win: 34%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alianza Valledupar 1529; Águilas Doradas 1599. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Friday, Oct 9 2026
· 23:00
Alianza Valledupar
Elo 1529
vs
Águilas Doradas
Elo 1599
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-69
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Alianza Valledupar1529
Águilas Doradas1599
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Alianza Valledupar
0Draws
2Águilas Doradas
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
Home
39%
Draw
27%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
43%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.