How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is CD Motagua, at 71.2%. The other outcomes represent 28.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 71.2% · Draw: 17.2% · Away win: 11.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: CD Motagua 1730; Atlético Choloma 1440. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Nacional · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 23:15
CD Motagua
Elo 1730
vs
Atlético Choloma
Elo 1440
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+290
H2H (5)
5H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
CD Motagua1730
Atlético Choloma1440
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
5CD Motagua
0Draws
0Atlético Choloma
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
Home
71%
Draw
17%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
Home
53%
Draw
36%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.