How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Toluca, at 38.8%. The other outcomes represent 61.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 38.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tigres UANL 1709; Toluca 1823. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga MX · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 03:00
Tigres UANL
Elo 1709
vs
Toluca
Elo 1823
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-114
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Tigres UANL1709
Toluca1823
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Tigres UANL
2Draws
0Toluca
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
Home
38%
Draw
23%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
28%
Draw
45%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.