How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Kitchee, at 79.9%. The other outcomes represent 20.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 79.9% · Draw: 11.9% · Away win: 8.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kitchee 1840; Hong Kong FC 1350. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Oct 10 2026
· 08:00
Kitchee
Elo 1840
vs
Hong Kong FC
Elo 1350
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+490
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Kitchee1840
Hong Kong FC1350
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Kitchee
0Draws
0Hong Kong FC
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
80% conf.
Home
80%
Draw
12%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Half-Time Result
61% conf.
Home
61%
Draw
30%
Away
9%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.